Drivers, Receivers, and Dynamic Linkages: The Directed Structure of SDG Interdependence, 2000--2024
Md Muhtasim Munif Fahim, Md Jahid Hasan Imran, Md. Naim Molla, Luknath Debnath, Tonmoy Shil, Ehsanul Bashar Pranto, Md Mostafizur Rahman Likhon, Md Shafin Sanyan Saad, Md. Rezaul Karim
arXiv preprint · 2026 · preprint · arXiv:2601.20875
TL;DR
The revised preprint maps all 17 SDGs across 114 countries and finds 84 supported directed linkages after false-discovery control. No single goal behaves as a stable universal accelerator, so portfolio policy should track time-lagged, evidence-backed linkages instead of rankings alone.
Abstract
Governments with limited fiscal and administrative capacity need to know which Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) propagate progress through the goal system and how quickly. We map the directed interdependence structure of all seventeen goals using a balanced panel of 114 countries observed annually from 2000 to 2024. The goal series are persistent, trending, and cross-sectionally dependent, so we apply two estimators matched to this regime: a Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel Granger non-causality test, run on first-differenced series, to recover the directed interaction network, and panel local projections with Driscoll-Kraay standard errors to measure the dynamic magnitude of 31 theory-derived indicator linkages. Of 272 directed goal pairs, 84 linkages survive false-discovery control (40 synergies, 44 trade-offs; network density 0.31). Synergies and trade-offs occur at comparable strength, so no single goal behaves as a universal accelerator, and the goal-level hierarchy itself is fragile. Driver-receiver rankings correlate weakly across lag orders and centrality metrics, and under a country bootstrap only two roles are distinguishable from zero: peace and strong institutions as the clearest net receiver, and poverty reduction as the most probable effect-size-weighted driver. The supported linkages are dynamic, accruing over four to five years: sanitation and poverty improvements are the strongest predictors of lower child mortality, and the education-child-health association is corroborated in independent World Development Indicators data across 183 countries. These results caution against rankings-based accelerator policy and support adaptive portfolios built on supported, time-lagged linkages monitored through constituent indicators.
BibTeX
@article{fahim2026drivers,
title = {Drivers, Receivers, and Dynamic Linkages: The Directed Structure of SDG Interdependence, 2000--2024},
author = {Md Muhtasim Munif Fahim and Md Jahid Hasan Imran and Md. Naim Molla and Luknath Debnath and Tonmoy Shil and Ehsanul Bashar Pranto and Md Mostafizur Rahman Likhon and Md Shafin Sanyan Saad and Md. Rezaul Karim},
year = {2026},
journal = {arXiv preprint},
eprint = {2601.20875},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.20875},
}